{"id":37283,"date":"2026-05-14T16:46:48","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T14:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crystalintelligence.com\/?p=37283"},"modified":"2026-05-14T17:08:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T15:08:27","slug":"not-all-dollar-stablecoins-carry-the-same-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crystalintelligence.com\/stablecoin\/not-all-dollar-stablecoins-carry-the-same-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Not all dollar stablecoins carry the same risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"37283\" class=\"elementor elementor-37283\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6380da84 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"6380da84\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1bba101b elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"1bba101b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" data-src=\"https:\/\/crystalintelligence.com\/rohirov\/2026\/03\/Blog-Icon.svg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-36274 lazyload\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 40px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 40\/40;\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8a077c4 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8a077c4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-77a46a6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"77a46a6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">By Hannah Curtis<\/span>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7dbc3844 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7dbc3844\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Foresight Product Lead<\/span>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2ab64b3a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"2ab64b3a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7a01c19b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7a01c19b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-179c1484 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"179c1484\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56f43d7a elementor-widget-tablet_extra__width-initial elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"56f43d7a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Share via:\n<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-11f7f00d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"11f7f00d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" id=\"facebook-post\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"36\" height=\"36\" data-src=\"https:\/\/crystalintelligence.com\/rohirov\/2026\/02\/FB.svg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-35273 lazyload\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 36px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 36\/36;\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5852413c elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5852413c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" id=\"linkedin-post\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"36\" height=\"36\" data-src=\"https:\/\/crystalintelligence.com\/rohirov\/2026\/02\/In.svg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-35275 lazyload\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 36px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 36\/36;\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-73f22ca1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"73f22ca1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" id=\"x-post\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"36\" height=\"36\" data-src=\"https:\/\/crystalintelligence.com\/rohirov\/2026\/02\/x.svg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-35274 lazyload\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 36px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 36\/36;\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6cab5cde e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6cab5cde\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6146c067 elementor-align-left elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"6146c067\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-75ab97c elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-custom\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tUpdated on: May 14, 2026\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-78eb6c40 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"78eb6c40\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7119fd0e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7119fd0e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" id=\"content-container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-69942eba elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"69942eba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Crystal Foresight tracks the $299.4B stablecoin market in real time, covering 99% of all stablecoin assets. This analysis profiles the nine largest dollar-pegged stablecoins using on-chain transfer data, showing how each one is actually used, who holds the supply, and where the risks are &#8211; so that compliance teams, institutional participants, and investigators can see what market cap alone does not show.<\/p>\n<h2>Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Only one stablecoin is&nbsp;mainly used&nbsp;for direct person-to-person transfers.&nbsp;That is USDT, at 41.9%. Every other $1B+ stablecoin is dominated by exchange trading, lending, or automated protocol activity. In the 30 days ending&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/tether-blacklists-371-wallets-after-515m-usdt-freeze-in-30-days\/\" target=\"_blank\">May 7, Tether froze $515M across 371 addresses<\/a>&nbsp;&#8211; showing both active compliance enforcement and the scale of illicit activity that regulators are watching.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>USDC\u2019s activity is concentrated&nbsp;in&nbsp;one trading platform.&nbsp;Aerodrome Finance, a decentralized exchange on the Base blockchain, generated $1.1T in 30-day transfers involving USDC. That figure is inflated by how automated trading pools work (each trade triggers multiple transfers), but it shows how dependent USDC is on a single piece of infrastructure.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>86% of USD1 supply sits with one exchange group.&nbsp;Binance and its custody arm&nbsp;Ceffu&nbsp;hold&nbsp;nearly all&nbsp;of USD1. Since the&nbsp;initial&nbsp;large mint, market cap has dropped 17.6% in 90 days. The supply&nbsp;appears to be&nbsp;circulating within Binance rather than spreading to other platforms or users.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>USDe&nbsp;shrank by 37.6% in one quarter.&nbsp;This is not a crisis &#8211; it is how the asset works.&nbsp;USDe&nbsp;pays holders a return based on trading market conditions. When those returns dropped, capital left. The concern is that 80% of supply sits in the issuer\u2019s own vaults, which means the next downturn could trigger a faster exit.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>USDG is growing faster than any asset in this set (+134.5% in 90 days)but&nbsp;most of that growth went to one exchange. OKX holds 27% of supply and received $1.2B from the issuer over 90 days. Fast growth concentrated in a single partner is a pattern worth watching.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>The snapshot<\/h2>\n<p>Every stablecoin transfer leaves a trail. Crystal Foresight classifies those transfers by what they are&nbsp;actually part&nbsp;of &#8211; a trade on an exchange, a deposit into a lending platform, a direct person-to-person send, or an automated loop designed to amplify returns. This classification is the volume fingerprint. It shows how an asset is functionally being used, not just how much money moved.<\/p>\n<p>The table below shows each&nbsp;asset\u2019s&nbsp;size, recent growth, the type of entity generating the most activity, and the dominant category of transfer activity.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Asset<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Market cap<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>90D change<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Top entity type (30D volume)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>%<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Main transfer type<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>%<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Tether (USDT)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$189.7B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>+3.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Centralized exchange<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>16.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Peer-to-peer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>41.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>USD Coin (USDC)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$77.1B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>+5.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Decentralized exchange<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>26.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>DEX trading<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>49.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Sky Dollar (USDS)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$11.0B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>+14.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Lending platform<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>24.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>71.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>DAI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$4.6B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>+5.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Governance<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>52.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>47.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>USD1<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$4.4B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>-17.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Centralized exchange<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>32.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Exchange trading<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>52.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>USDe<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$4.0B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>-37.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Yield vaults<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>12.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Yield strategies<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>42.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>PayPal USD (PYUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$3.5B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>-11.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Decentralized exchange<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>12.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Borrow-and-redeposit loops<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>21.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Global Dollar (USDG)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$3.4B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>+134.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Centralized exchange<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>34.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Exchange trading<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>60.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 94px; text-align: center;\">\n<p><strong>Ripple USD (RLUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 70.0938px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>$1.6B<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 72.3229px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>+2.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 142.469px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Lending platform<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 44.4271px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>14.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 109.573px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>Peer-to-peer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 45.1146px; text-align: center;\">\n<p>34.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>One important&nbsp;caveat:&nbsp;decentralized exchange volumes appear larger than they are. Automated trading pools generate multiple back-and-forth transfers for every single trade a user makes. A high DEX share signals deep liquidity, not a matching number of individual transactions.<\/p>\n<h2>What the data shows, asset by asset<\/h2>\n<h3><strong>Tether (USDT) &#8211; $189.7B, +3.2% over 90 days<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>USDT is the only stablecoin in this group that is&nbsp;mainly used&nbsp;for direct transfers between people. Its 41.9% peer-to-peer share sets it apart.&nbsp;Nearly half&nbsp;of all USDT transfers happen on Tron, where transaction fees are close to zero &#8211; making USDT the practical choice for everyday payments and remittances in regions where traditional banking is expensive or hard to access.<\/p>\n<p>Binance is the largest&nbsp;single source&nbsp;of USDT volume at $114.1B over 30 days. Tether froze $515M across 371 addresses in the same period, with 98% of those freezes on Tron. This shows active compliance enforcement, but it also quantifies the scale of illicit activity flowing through the network.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>If the peer-to-peer share drops, USDT is losing relevance in the everyday-payment markets where it matters most. The larger risk is regulatory: any enforcement action against Tether\u2019s reserve structure could cause rapid&nbsp;supply&nbsp;contraction in countries where millions of people rely on USDT as their primary way to hold dollars.<\/p>\n<h3>USD Coin (USDC) &#8211; $77.1B, +5.2% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>Half of USDC\u2019s transfer activity (49.9%) is decentralized exchange trading. Another 36.8% is lending. The single largest source of USDC volume is Aerodrome Finance, a trading platform on the Base blockchain, which processed $1.1T in 30-day transfers. That number reflects how automated trading pools work (each trade generates multiple transfers), not $1.1T in individual user transactions &#8211; but it shows how central one platform is to USDC\u2019s activity.<\/p>\n<p>USDC grew 73% in 2025, outpacing USDT for the second year running. In May 2026, the CLARITY Act preserved stablecoin reward programs in the US, and Circle received&nbsp;MiCA&nbsp;approval from France\u2019s financial regulator for EU-wide operations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>USDC\u2019s volume tracks closely with activity on Base and Aerodrome. If&nbsp;either experiences&nbsp;a disruption, USDC\u2019s volume and usability would be directly affected. This is infrastructure-specific concentration risk.<\/p>\n<h3>Sky Dollar (USDS) &#8211; $11.0B, +14.5% over 90 days &amp; DAI &#8211; $4.6B, +5.1% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>These two assets are phases of the same project.&nbsp;MakerDAO&nbsp;rebranded to Sky in 2024 and introduced USDS as the successor to DAI. The idea: you mint USDS, deposit it into the Sky Savings contract to earn a return (competitive with short-term US Treasury rates), and that return is funded by Sky lending the pooled deposits out through its own lending market.<\/p>\n<p>The data confirms this closed-loop design. USDS has a 71.3% lending fingerprint, and the Sky Savings contract holds&nbsp;roughly 51%&nbsp;of total USDS supply. DAI\u2019s activity is dominated by governance operations (52.2%) &#8211; the protocol converting DAI holders to USDS.&nbsp;Nearly all&nbsp;counterparties for both assets are internal to the Sky system: its own lending market, its own governance contracts, its own savings product.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>The ratio of USDS to DAI market cap tracks how fast the migration is moving. The bigger concern is dependency. A combined $15.6B in supply relies on a single protocol\u2019s health. If Sky\u2019s lending market or savings product&nbsp;encounters&nbsp;a problem, both assets are affected simultaneously.<\/p>\n<h3>USDe&nbsp;&#8211; $4.0B, -37.6% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>USDe&nbsp;is not a payment instrument. It is designed to generate returns for holders. Ethena, the issuer,&nbsp;maintains&nbsp;a trading position (buying crypto while simultaneously betting against it through derivatives) that earns income from market conditions. That income is passed to holders who deposit their&nbsp;USDe&nbsp;into staking vaults.<\/p>\n<p>The data makes this explicit. The dominant transfer type is&nbsp;yield&nbsp;strategies (42.6%), the highest of any $1B+ stablecoin. Ethena\u2019s own vaults hold approximately 80% of total supply. The 37.6% market cap decline over 90 days happened because the trading conditions that generate returns weakened. When returns fall, holders withdraw. The mechanism is working as intended &#8211; but 80% concentration in the issuer\u2019s own vaults means any future rate decline could produce a faster and larger exit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>The share of&nbsp;USDe&nbsp;deposited in staking vaults. A high staking rate means most holders are there for the returns and will leave when returns drop. The risk scenario is a sharp reversal in the trading conditions that fund the yield, triggering a wave of withdrawals.<\/p>\n<h3>USD1 &#8211; $4.4B, -17.6% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>USD1 was created by World Liberty Financial and launched through a single large deal: the $2B MGX\/Binance investment settled in USD1 in May 2025. The on-chain data shows what happened after that&nbsp;initial&nbsp;event.<\/p>\n<p>Binance and its custody partner&nbsp;Ceffu&nbsp;hold approximately 86% of all USD1 supply. The two largest outflows from the issuer over 90 days both went to Binance addresses ($467M and $45M). Lending activity is minimal. Usage on decentralized exchanges is thin. A small presence on the Solana blockchain is&nbsp;emerging&nbsp;through Manifest, a trading platform, but it&nbsp;remains&nbsp;early-stage.<\/p>\n<p>Market cap has dropped 17.6% since the&nbsp;initial&nbsp;mint. The supply&nbsp;appears to be&nbsp;circulating within the Binance system rather than spreading to new platforms or user groups.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>Whether supply moves beyond Binance. Right now, 86% of a $4.4B asset depends on one exchange group. That is a concentration risk regardless of the&nbsp;exchange\u2019s&nbsp;size or reputation. Any disruption to Binance\u2019s operations would directly affect USD1\u2019s usability and liquidity.<\/p>\n<h3>Global Dollar (USDG) &#8211; $3.4B, +134.5% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>USDG has a different business model from most stablecoins. Paxos, the issuer, shares&nbsp;nearly all&nbsp;of the interest earned on the dollar reserves with partner platforms &#8211; OKX, Kraken, Robinhood, Worldpay, and Anchorage Digital. Those partners then offer users a share of that interest through Earn programs, giving every partner a financial reason to encourage users to hold USDG.<\/p>\n<p>The result is the fastest growth in this group: +134.5% over 90 days. But OKX holds 27% of supply and received $1.2B from Paxos over 90 days. Pendle Finance, a platform for trading future yield, holds 5% ($177M) &#8211; a sign that USDG is starting to appear in more complex financial products.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>Whether growth spreads beyond OKX. Fast expansion driven by a single partner carries the same concentration risk seen in USD1. The test is whether Kraken, Robinhood, and newer partners start holding meaningful shares of supply.<\/p>\n<h3>Ripple USD (RLUSD) &#8211; $1.6B, +2.1% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>RLUSD&nbsp;operates two&nbsp;different use cases. Direct person-to-person transfers account for 34.0% of activity &#8211; the second-highest peer-to-peer share after USDT. At the same time, 21.0% of activity consists of borrow-and-redeposit loops, where users repeatedly borrow and redeposit to amplify returns. That is the highest share of this type of activity for any $1B+ stablecoin.<\/p>\n<p>The distribution chain is visible: Ripple mints RLUSD to itself, then distributes to B2C2 Group ($351M over 90 days), a professional trading firm named as an official market maker at launch.&nbsp;Aave, a lending platform, holds 10% of total supply.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>The balance between peer-to-peer and lending activity. Growth in peer-to-peer signals real institutional payment volume. If the lending share drops, that demand channel weakens.<\/p>\n<h3>PayPal USD (PYUSD) &#8211; $3.5B, -11.6% over 90 days<\/h3>\n<p>PYUSD has the most evenly spread activity of any asset in this group. No single transfer type accounts for more than 21.7%. The Spark vault (a partnership with&nbsp;MakerDAO\/Sky) holds $767M, targeting $1B in deposits.<\/p>\n<p>The most active growth is on the Solana blockchain.. Manifest, a Solana trading platform, is the second-largest source of PYUSD volume at $3.4B over 30 days. A notable holder is USD.AI, a lending service that finances AI data&nbsp;center&nbsp;hardware using PYUSD as its settlement currency &#8211; the first project built on PayPal\u2019s new&nbsp;PYUSDx&nbsp;framework, which allows other companies to create specialized tokens backed by PYUSD.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to watch:&nbsp;<\/strong>Whether the Spark vault reaches its $1B target. The even distribution could mean broad adoption &#8211; or an asset that has not yet found a dominant use case. If no channel pulls ahead, the risk is scattered usage without lasting demand.<\/p>\n<h2>What it means for risk assessment<\/h2>\n<p>Market cap tells you how big a stablecoin is. It does not tell you how it is used, who holds the supply, or what would cause it to shrink. The on-chain transfer data answers those questions.<\/p>\n<p>Three patterns stand out across these nine assets. First, concentration risk: USD1 has 86% of supply with one exchange group,&nbsp;USDe&nbsp;has 80% in issuer-controlled vaults, and USDG\u2019s fastest growth flows primarily to one partner. When most of an asset\u2019s supply sits with a small number of holders, any single decision by those holders can move the market.<\/p>\n<p>Second, infrastructure dependency: USDC\u2019s volume tracks one trading platform on one blockchain. USDS and DAI depend entirely on one protocol. These are not diversified instruments &#8211; they are deeply tied to specific pieces of infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>Third, the gap between appearance and function:&nbsp;USDe&nbsp;looks like a stablecoin but behaves like a yield product. USD1 looks like a $4.4B asset but circulates primarily within one exchange. PYUSD looks evenly adopted but may simply lack a clear identity. The transfer data reveals what each asset&nbsp;actually is, beneath the market cap figure.<\/p>\n<p>The stablecoin market is not&nbsp;consolidating&nbsp;to a single winner. It is splitting into distinct categories &#8211; and the on-chain data is the clearest way to see which category each asset belongs to and what risks come with it.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5657df67 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5657df67\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-736afc3d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"736afc3d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Crystal Foresight covers stablecoins across 330+ blockchains, with transfer classification, counterparty identification, holder concentration, and supply tracking. 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This analysis profiles the nine largest dollar-pegged stablecoins using on-chain transfer data, showing how each one is actually used, who holds the supply, and where the risks are &#8211; so that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":37285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[779,776],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis-research","category-stablecoin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.6 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stablecoin Risk Profiles: What On-Chain Data Reveals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crystal Foresight profiles nine $1B+ stablecoins by volume fingerprint, counterparty flows, and holder concentration. 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